The Perfect Storm for Wall Street Banks
By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: January 14, 2015
JPMorgan Chase reported 2014 fourth quarter earnings this morning, missing analyst estimates. Analysts had expected $1.31 per share while the actual number came in at $1.19. Listening to the conference call this morning, there was the impression that the $1.19 would have been worse had the bank not released loan loss reserves in a number of business areas.
Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, was back to characterizing the bank’s P&L as the “fortress balance sheet.” The London Whale credit derivatives traders almost blew up the fortress in 2012 and the markets are becoming skeptical as to just how much visibility there is on energy and emerging market loans souring on the books of the mega Wall Street banks.
In early December, Oppenheimer analyst Chris Kotowski noted in a report that plunging oil prices could be the greatest threat to the largest U.S. banks since the epic financial turmoil in 2008 while also warning that visibility into the banks’ loan exposure to the oil and exploration industry is limited.
That’s a very valid point. Another valid point is that visibility into the big banks’ exposure as counterparties to derivatives tied to plunging oil and commodity prices and shaky emerging market debt is also being kept under wraps – at least for now. The only clue as to which banks may take a hit, either from direct exposure or from loans to hedge funds taking a bath in the sectors, is the price action of the bank shares in the open market.
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